The Rhythm of Luxury: Understanding Ogden Valley's Seasonal Market Patterns
I pulled 10 years of transaction data from 118 luxury home sales between $1.75M and $2.5M (context: the valley's median home price is $1.11M, so we're talking about a very different market). What we found wasn't surprising, but the magnitude of it was.
10 Year Seasonal Outlook
Mountain Luxury | Eden, UT
Data based on 118 luxury transactions over 10 years
Seasonal Transaction Flow
Key Insight
The luxury market demonstrates clear seasonality with peak contracting activity in summer months (June-August), while closings remain more distributed throughout the year. This pattern reflects the extended timelines typical of luxury transactions and the preference for property tours during optimal weather conditions.
Market Pricing Power by Season
Key Insight
Sold-to-list ratios reveal strong pricing power in spring and early summer (April-June), with buyers often meeting or exceeding list prices. The market moderates in fall (September-November), presenting strategic opportunities for both builders and buyers during these shoulder seasons.
Winter is Rough
January and February are just brutal. These two months combined account for only 10% of annual contract activity. But here's the part that really stings: sold-to-list ratios drop to 94-96%. That means if you're selling a $2M home in February, you're likely taking $80,000 to $120,000 less than asking just to get it done.
Why? Part of it is weather. Nobody wants to tour mountain properties when it's 15 degrees outside. But it's mostly psychology. Buyers know spring inventory is coming, so they wait. Out-of-state traffic disappears. The whole market just freezes up.
Spring is Where the Money Is
March through June is a completely different game. These four months generate 37% of annual contracts. That's nearly 4x the activity of winter, compressed into the same amount of time.
More importantly, pricing power comes roaring back. Sold-to-list ratios climb to 97-100%+. In April, buyers are paying an average of 98.3% of list, and we regularly see properties go over asking. On a $2M home, that's a $100,000 swing compared to selling in winter.
This isn't theory. This is what actually happened across 118 transactions over a decade. If you list in March, you catch fresh buyers with real urgency. By July, those same buyers have already seen every property twice and the momentum is gone.
Fall is the Gamble
September through November is interesting. Contract activity drops to about 19% of the year, and pricing softens back to 92-95% of list. September is particularly weak at 92.2%, which is only marginally better than the dead of winter.
Here's the thing though: if you're a buyer, September and October can be goldmines. Sellers who listed in summer are getting nervous. They know winter is coming. You've got real negotiating leverage and you're not competing with the spring rush.
What to do if You're Thinking of Selling
For sellers, the play is obvious: list in March. You get maximum buyer activity and maximum pricing power. If you absolutely have to sell in winter, understand you're giving up 5-6% to get it done. That's not negotiable, that's just what the market does.
For buyers, hunt in January and February when sellers are motivated and pricing is soft. Or wait for September when the fall slowdown creates opportunity. Just don't shop in spring expecting deals, because you won't find them. Spring buyers pay full price, and they do it quickly.
The data is clear. Ogden Valley's luxury market follows a rhythm that repeats every year. The mountains aren't going anywhere, but your timing can easily cost or save you six figures.
Data based on 118 luxury single-family home sales in Ogden Valley from 2015-2025, price range $1.75M-$2.5M. Valley median SFH price: $1.11M (2025).
