A simple guide for planning an epic trip filled with powder days
NOAA and the Old Farmer’s Almanac both point to the same pattern this winter. A forecasted weak La Niña pattern puts the northern Rockies in the best position for steady storms, leaves Utah and Colorado in a mixed zone, and pushes New Mexico and Nevada into the “wait for the right week” category.
If you want powder, here is the cleanest breakdown:
Montana and Idaho
Best odds for powder.
NOAA shows the northern Rockies in the wetter zone this winter. Storms favor this region early and often. The Almanac also leans slightly wetter here.
Best Months
- January and February
- Late December can already be good in this region
- March holds up well because the base is deep
Where to Look
- Big Sky region
- Lost Trail
- Schweitzer
- Sun Valley’s higher terrain
If your group wants the highest probability of actual storm skiing, this is the pick.
Utah and Colorado
Middle of the pack, still strong with timing.
These two states sit right on the boundary between the wetter north and the drier south. NOAA gives them a neutral to slightly warm outlook with normal or slightly reduced precipitation. The Almanac shows mild temps but enough moisture to keep the door open for good cycles.
This means the skiing will be good, but you want to time trips around active storm windows.
Best Months
- Late January through early March
- December is hit or miss
- Mid February is the safest bet
Where to Look
- Northern Utah (Cottonwoods, Powder Mountain, Snowbasin)
- Northern and central Colorado (Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail’s upper elevations, Aspen)
If you want dependable conditions, aim for higher terrain and push your dates into late winter.
New Mexico and Nevada
A gamble, but capable of big weeks
NOAA shows the southern Rockies and the Southwest trending drier overall. The Almanac gives this region a twist by noting pockets of above average snow in the southern Rockies and the eastern Desert Southwest. Translation: longer dry stretches, but big storms when the pattern dips.
Best Months
- Late February through mid March
- This is when southern systems have the best chance to swing through
Where to Look
- Taos
- Pajarito
- Santa Fe
- Lee Canyon on Lucky Cycles
If your crew is flexible and willing to storm chase, this region can deliver surprise powder.
TLDR; Simple Rule for Planning Your Trip
If you want the highest chance of powder with the least stress: Pick Montana or Idaho and go in January or February.
If you want Utah or Colorado and still want good odds: Aim for late January through early March and choose higher terrain.
If you want New Mexico or Nevada: Plan for late February or March and be ready to pivot if a southern storm pops.
